According to the newly released macroeconomic report on Vietnam, Standard Chartered forecasts that inflation will increase shortly, with an increase of 3.8% in February 2025.
This marks the seventh consecutive month that inflation has remained below 4% year-over-year. However, economists at Standard Chartered Bank predict that the inflationary surge from December onwards may continue into February, albeit temporarily. Demand-driven factors could contribute to increased inflationary pressures shortly.
The Vietnamese government has adjusted its 2025 GDP growth target to at least 8%, up from 6.5-7%, with an expected inflation rate of 4.5-5% to create room for flexible monetary policy. Stronger growth prospects may support low interest rates in the short term. Standard Chartered forecasts the State Bank of Vietnam to increase interest rates by 50 basis points in Q2/2025 to address rising inflation.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered, stated: "The short-term economic outlook for Vietnam still requires caution, as macroeconomic indicators in January show signs of adjustments both domestically and internationally. Uncertainty in US trade policies also poses a risk, given Vietnam's large trade surplus with the US. Additionally, Vietnam has expressed a willingness to import more agricultural products from the US."
According to economists at Standard Chartered Bank, retail sales growth is projected at 8.2% year-over-year in February (compared to 9.5% in January). Meanwhile, export growth could increase by 23.2% year-over-year, driven by a low base and the continued recovery of electronics exports. Imports and industrial production are likely to increase by 24% and 6.2% year-over-year, respectively. However, Vietnam's monthly trade surplus may narrow to USD 1.5 billion, down from USD 3.0 billion. |
(According to Thoi bao Tai Chinh Viet Nam)
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