Revenue from Vietnam's largest e-commerce platforms (Shopee, Lazada, Sendo, Tiki, and TikTok Shop) in 2025 is projected to reach approximately 387.5 trillion VND, a 21.5% increase compared to 2024. Although growth momentum is maintained, the increase will narrow significantly compared to previous years, reflecting a plateauing market.
The shift from traditional shopping to online shopping is an irreversible trend. Evidenced by the fact that in 2022, the scale of e-commerce platforms accounted for about 8.5% of the retail market share, and in 2023, this figure continued to increase to 10%. In addition, e-commerce currently accounts for about two-thirds of the value of Vietnam's digital economy.
Economic difficulties affect e-commerce growth.
In 2023, the number of products sold on the 5 major e-commerce platforms achieved a strong growth rate of 52.2% (from 1,490 million to 2,268 million products). Subsequently, a plateauing trend began in 2024, with the growth rate decreasing to 50.8%. It is forecasted that in 2025, this figure is likely to be halved, falling to 23% with approximately 4,200 million products sold.
Parallel to the decline in the number of products sold, the revenue of e-commerce platforms reveals a faster deceleration trend. If 2023 witnessed a 53% revenue growth, by 2024, this increase had narrowed to 37.36%. It is forecasted that by 2025, the growth rate will continue its downward trajectory, reaching only 21.5%.
Explaining this plateauing trend, Mr. Chu Xuan Thuc, Head of Business Development at Metric, stated that this forecast is based on current analyses of the Vietnamese e-commerce market. In recent years, this sector recorded explosive growth due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with consumers shifting to online shopping at an unprecedented rate. To aggressively expand market share, platforms continuously launched promotions and special strategies, particularly effective during peak shopping seasons. However, the market is likely to grow more slowly due to numerous challenges.
The clearest manifestation is the difficult economic situation, which has led consumers to tighten their spending, resulting in a decline in purchasing power across many channels, including e-commerce. Although it remains a popular shopping channel, financial pressures will cause a large number of customers to consider more carefully before each spending decision, slowing down the overall growth rate of the industry.
In addition, the e-commerce market is entering a phase of more measured development. E-commerce platforms are no longer competing with massive promotions as before. Instead, they are focusing on sustainable development strategies, improving service quality and customer experience. This helps maintain stability but also slows down shopping demand compared to the past.
From April 2025, the policy of tax collection instead of sellers on e-commerce platforms officially takes effect. This forces both platforms and sellers to adjust pricing strategies. Platforms may increase sales fees to offset tax collection costs, while sellers will inevitably have to adjust product prices to maintain profits. As a result, commodity prices tend to increase, leading to the risk of reduced purchasing power due to consumer spending cuts.
According to Mr. Thuc, the growth rate of e-commerce platforms in 2026 may even be lower than the 21.5% forecast for 2025. 'The market always has unpredictable factors, so this scenario is entirely possible.' However, the possibility of the market still having products that create a breakthrough is not excluded. Mr. Thuc said that if breakthrough products appear, creating significant demand, the growth rate can still exceed the 21.5% mark.
E-commerce is no longer a race
Faced with continuous market fluctuations, tens of thousands of sellers have left the market each year. The 'game' is no longer about competing on price, but on long-term strategies that continuously adapt to market needs.
E-commerce is no longer a race where those who join first are guaranteed to win. Businesses that enter the market later but know how to overcome their competitors' weaknesses, applying technology to research and understand the market, can completely rise to the top.
2025 marks many important changes in e-commerce management policies. On February 18, 2025, Decision 01/2025/QD-TTg, approved by Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc, officially took effect. This policy applies VAT to all imported goods under 1 million VND via express delivery.
From April 1, 2025, e-commerce platforms and digital platforms with payment functions will deduct, pay taxes on behalf of, and declare the deducted tax amount for business households and individual businesses.
According to Ms. Le Hoang Oanh, Director of the E-commerce and Digital Economy Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in 2025, the Department will continue to research and develop specialized laws on e-commerce. The draft will unify concepts of digital platforms, and intermediary digital platforms, ensuring consistency with current laws.
(According to VnEconomy)
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